AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 30, 2014 Forecast » Fx …
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The AUD/USD closed higher for the week, but the reaction at .9440 suggests traders are still defending the June 23 main top at .9444. Taking out this level with conviction should trigger a move into the April 10 top and high for the year at .9460.
The late session selling pressure on Friday may lead to additional selling on Monday as traders square positions ahead of the China Manufacturing PMI report and HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI data. The Reserve Bank of Australia is also set to release its latest rate statement.
The Aussie has been sensitive to U.S. economic data so traders should note that because of a bank holiday on Friday, the latest U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and Unemployment Rate will be released a day earlier on Thursday, July 3. Following the release of the RBA statement, volume and volatility could drop into the U.S. jobs report.
The resiliency of the Aussie versus the U.S. Dollar has taken many traders by surprise. The thought earlier this year was that with the Fed tapering monthly stimulus and the U.S. economy improving, the AUD/USD would be trading around .9000 this late in the year. Instead, the Fed tapering has been priced into the market and the uneven recovery by the U.S. economy has the Aussie flirting with the .9500 area.
Daily AUD/USD
Technically, the main range is .9444 to .9353. The retracement zone formed by this range is .9396 to .9386. With the main trend up on the daily chart, traders have gotten used to buying dips into retracement zones. If this trend is going to continue then look for buyers to show up and defend the retracement zone.
Today’s session starts with downtrending resistance angle at .9419, .9432 and .9483. The latter angle stopped the rally on Friday.
The nearest support angle comes in at .9419, followed by additional angles at .9413 and .9401. If these angles fail as support then look for a clean break into the angle at .9383. This angle forms a loose support cluster with the Fibonacci level at .9386.
The tone of the market today should be determined by how investors react to a test of the retracement zone at .9396 to .9386. This zone is likely to act like a pivot. Holding above the 50% level at .9396 will signal the presence of buyers.
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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – June 30, 2014 Forecast » Fx …
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