Bubbles, Economic and Financial Forecasts!

Bubbles, Economic and Financial Forecasts!

Dear Reader,

Non-farm payrolls in March in the USA were weak. I expect a very weak GDP reading for the first quarter of 2015. Overall, I forecast US GDP to grow no more than 2.5% year on year in 2015. Actually, I think the growth year on year of US GDP for 2015 will be closer to 2.0% than to 2.5%.

That said, I do not expect the Fed to get swayed. I think the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate in September 2015, although there is a decent chance the rate hike will happen even in June. I expect the US 10 year treasury yield to reach 2.7% somewhere in 2015.

US tech and biotech stocks are in a bubble. But the bubble is not as big as the dot com bubble. I expect the Nasdaq to loose little more than 30% of its value. The S&P 500 should fall 20% from its current levels.

I expect a 10%, at least, correction of eurozone stock markets from the current levels. I know the ECB is printing money, but the eurozone economy is just too weak to justify the current valuations alone.
I expect the eurozone GDP to grow 1.6% year on year in 2015.

Eurozone bonds are in a significant bubble. I forecast the German 10 year bund yield to touch 0.7% in 2015.

I expect the EUR/USD to reach 0.90 in 2015 and gold should touch 1050 in 2015.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author’s and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

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