Back in September, Barclays’ Barry Knapp slapped a 1,900 target for the S&P 500 in 2014.
Relative to other global markets the firm covers, Barclays sees U.S. markets offering the lowest near-term return opportunity.
“The US market has been the unambiguous leader in this current equity cycle,” noted Barclays in new research. “[W]ith the constraints elsewhere beginning to lift, we think performance will now favour non-US markets. Funds are certainly beginning to move in that direction and we think there is a large “gap” to fill.”
The analysts included a chart showing how U.S. stocks have sharply outperformed foreign markets over the last two decades.
“On the US side, the market is set to face a lessening in support from monetary policy,” they added. “Our economists expect the Fed to begin reducing its rate of Treasury purchases in March 2014, while 10-year yields are forecast to rise to 3.5 % by end-2014. This forecast backup in US yields is expected to exceed those of the euro area, UK and Japan. We do not anticipate that this turn in the policy cycle will signal a major “top” for the market, but it will introduce more uncertainty and shift the focus to earnings growth as the route to higher stock prices.”
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