Gold Prediction using Statistics and Technical Analysis | Chris …
Gold Prediction using Statistics and Technical Analysis
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| Wed, May 14, 2014
Here is my gold prediction (silver and gold mining stocks, should be
the same) looking forward 24 months.
Since the top in gold in 2011 gold has selling off. Depending on how you analyze
the market, this 3 year sell off could be seen as consolidation within a major
cyclical bull market or that it’s in a bear market. But know this, either way,
the outlook is bullish, and all gold has to do is find a bottom here and rally
above the $1400 per ounce level. This would kick start a major feeding frenzy
of gold buying.
Gold bear market in the past have on average corrected 33% and lasted a total
of 550 days. So if we look at the stats of the current pullback in gold it
has dropped 38% and about 700 days long. Time for a bottom and bull market?
It sure seems like it.
You can see my recent report on the US Dollar and gold
forecast
Gold Prediction Technical Outlook:
Gold remains in a down trend, but looks to be starting a possible stage 1
basing pattern. Technical analysis is pointing to strength as the MACD moving
higher, relative strength, and the down trendline show price and momentum being
bullish.
A few weeks ago the chart completed a Golden Cross. This is not shown on the
chart, but it is when the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA. Investors tend
to look at this as a major long term buy signal, although I do not use it for
any of my analysis or timing of the market.
If historical data, statistics, and technical analysis prove to be correct
we can expect gold to rise. My gold prediction is for price to reach
$2300 – $2500 per ounce within 24 months.
Gold Prediction Conclusion:
The average gold bull market last roughly 450 days and posts a gain of 95%.
So with the current correction which is beyond these levels already, expect
price to firm up this year and complete the stage 1 base.
Note that until gold breaks out of its Stage 1 Basing pattern, I will remain
bearish/neutral on the metal. There are huge opportunities elsewhere unfolding.
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Author: Chris Vermeulen
Chris Vermeulen
President of AlgoTrades Systems
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
10126 Hwy 126 East, RR#2
Collingwood, ON, L9Y 3Z1
Chris Vermeulen, founder of AlgoTrades Systems., is an internationally recognized
market technical analyst and trader. Involved in the markets since 1997.
Chris’ mission is to help his clients boost their investment performance while
reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.
Chris is also the founder of TheGoldAndOilGuy.com, a financial education and
investment newsletter service. Chris is responsible for market research and
trade alerts for of its newsletter publication.
Through years of research, trading and helping thousands of individual investors
around the world. He designed an automated algorithmic trading system for the
S&P 500 index which solves his client’s biggest problem related to investing
in the stock market: the ability to profit in both a rising and falling market.
AlgoTrades’ automated trading systems allows
individuals to investing using either exchange traded funds or the ES mini
futures contracts. It is supported by many leading brokerage firms including:
– Interactive Brokers
– Trade MONSTER
– MB Trading
– OEC OpenECry
– The Fox Group
– Dorman Trading
– Vision Financial
He is the author of the popular book “Technical
Trading Mastery – 7 Steps To Win With Logic.” He has also been featured
on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe
Haven,The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest and
dozens of other financial websites. His list of personal and professional
relationships approaches 25,000, people with whom he connects and shares
is market insight with out of his passion for trading.
Chris is a graduate of Seneca College where he specialized in business operations
management.
Chris enjoys boating, kiteboarding, mountain biking, fishing and has his ultralight
pilots license. He resides in the Toronto area with his wife Kristen and two
children.
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Gold Prediction using Statistics and Technical Analysis | Chris …