Is this time different? Is oil down because we just have a shit load of it, or is it because the global economies are sucking at growth so badly that we”ll never have to fire up another factory again? Does this action portend a vicious black swan that only few can see? Crude has just about been cut in half since August 2013. The high tick then was around 112.24.
When crude was ripping for no reason in 2008, (hit 146 a barrel), we detested the evil speculators, now at 66 we piss and moan that its not 100. Something must be wrong right? I say balderdash.
We have deflation, not inflation and EVERYTHING is ass backwards because of it. If you’re in the right stocks right now you’re cool, if you’re not, than I guess another 10% down is on its way because it feels like it to you.
It all about the rotations. What was hot the first six months of the year or last year are no longer hot.
$NFLX has quietly dropped 160 points in a few months and $DDD, last years wunderkind, is down 50% from its spike high in July and has been cut 2/3 from its high in January. $TSLA is down 75 balloons in a few months.
We’ll see more death in some names next year, but we will uncover a whole new bread of winners that haven’t yet revealed themselves.
Energy is $NFLX and $TSLA right now, its just doing it as a whole sector. The crowd was ALL long and now they ALL want to be liquid at the same time. It happens. Finding the bottom in energy is insane right now. It took them years to get long the space, they don’t just leave in a month.
Maybe something bad is about to happen. I do find it amazing that the $SPX cruise sideways to higher with the energy sector getting brutalized on a daily basis.
The financials look strong, but can they do it alone? Certainly biotech can’t stay this way forever.
There is always something to obsess about. I still think we can put on another 50-60 handles by year end though. Maybe wishful thinking.
I’m long biotechs that seem to go up everyday. I’d rather be lucky than smart. I’m short $FSLR because they will be using their panels for floor tiles soon.
Have a great night
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