Social Media Sentiment on the Market – 3QTR 2015 Report
HedgeChatter: Social Media Market Sentiment 3rd-QTR 2015
Last week we ran a report to show the Downside Risk Alerts on the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) for the past two years. As previously noted, by monitoring the SPY we're able to see an indication of the markets pulling back within 24hrs - 3 weeks.
Findings: As the number of Downside Risk Alerts increase, the Total S&P 500 Return decreases.The report below was generated for the past two years.
Here is what's VERY interesting about this data when you break it apart by Year/QTR as done below:
In 2013 we started collecting the SPY data for the remainder 8 months of 2013. (We did not collect the first 4 months as we we're in build mode for Ver2.0)
- For the Year 2013 there were only 2 Downside Risk Indicators - How did the Market Perform? Total S&P500 Return 22.11%
In 2014 we had the following:
- For the Year 2014 we had a total of 12 Downside Risk Indicators - How did the Market Perform? Total S&P500 Return 12.72%
- Q1 - 3 Alerts
- Q2 - 3 Alerts
- Q3 - 3 Alerts
- Q4 - 3 Alerts
- Between August 2014 and December 31st 2014, there were 4 Downside Risk Alerts generated
In 2015 we've had the following:
Today, at the end of August Q3 2015, where are we now?
Based on the trending data analysis and increase in Downside Risk Indicators, we would be hard pressed to agree with the generalized "expert" public facing opinion . To Learn more about HedgeChatter products click the button: Financial Products