I recently took a look at changes in the number of shares outstanding of the SPY ETF as a sentiment measure. When traders are bullish, shares are created in the ETF; when they are bearish, shares are redeemed. This is a useful sentiment gauge, because it reflects what traders are actually doing in the market, not just their stated sentiment.What […]
Posted Saturday, January 10, 2015 @ 8:14 pm by Dr. WishGMI Sell signal remains in place; very cautious as bonds march higherGMI2/6GMI-24/8What is the GMI?WORDEN T210846%My indicators weakened on Friday and so the GMI Sell signal remains in place. My more sensitive measure of the short term trend of the QQQ also remains down, now having reached 6 days. I […]
SummaryThe powerful rallies of 2013 and 2014 were driven by extreme Fed money printing to buy up bonds, and the Fed’s associated implied backstop for the stock markets.
But with QE3’s new buying terminated and any QE4 a political impossibility with the new Republican Congress, 2015 is going to look vastly different without QE.
With the Fed’s balance sheet and zeroed interest […]
Market Thoughts$SPY $QQQ – Still long the market but did book a few gains. Looking to buy back any weakness. ; I’m bullish on 2015. ; Yes, there will be pullbacks and scary parts along the way.
As kids we get Christmas vacation. ; Why does that end as adults? ; Not fair – ; so I took it back! ; […]
SummaryI examine the impact of lower oil prices and low interest rates on the US stock market.
I argue how both are important measures to examine closely together.
I show that low oil and interest rates are bullish for the US stock market in the short and medium term.
There exists two economies, the real and financial economy. What is the most important […]
TraderFeed: Some Dark Clouds on the Stock Market Horizon
Some Dark Clouds on the Stock Market HorizonIt’s been a great run in stocks from the mid-October lows, fueled by significant buying pressure coming out of those lows. By mid-November, my measures were showing diminished upside momentum, but not the kind of weakness that would normally lead to meaningful intermediate-term corrections. By […]
With warmer weather arriving to melt the early snowfall across much of the country, investors seem to be catching a severe case of holiday fever and positioning themselves for the seasonally bullish time of the year. And to give an added boost, both Europe and Asia provided more fuel for the bull’s fire last week with stimulus announcements, particularly China’s […]
Quick question: Has 2014 been an up year or a down year for U.S. stocks?Chances are good that, if you anchor your view of the market to the Standard and Poors 500 Index or the Dow Industrials, you’d answer correctly that it’s been an up year. Less well appreciated is that the smallest capitalization stocks (IWC) are actually a bit […]
SummaryWar risk is one of three key fear areas today: war, bubbles or overvaluation, and economic slowdown or deflation.
Historical evidence from 1898 shows that US wars have not had an adverse impact on US stocks overall – avoiding stocks due to war has not […]
SummaryWe take a closer look into the policy to unveil what is really going on.
We argue the Fed has not increased money supply that much even though the monetary base has expanded.
One must monitor how banking excess reserves change to forecast how Fed policy impacts future stock market prices.
The Federal Reserve’s QE3 is targeted to end in October. Many wonder […]
