Summarizing The "Black Monday" Carnage So Far

It’s officially Black Monday, if only in China for now.We warned on Friday, after last week’s China rout, that the market is getting ahead of itself with its expectation of a RRR-cut by China as large as 100 bps. “The risk is that there isn’t one.” We were spot on, because not only was there no RRR cut, but Chinese […]

Futures Flat As Global Markets Closed For May Day

Following a volatile end to April, on whose last day many decided to frontrun “selling in May before going away”, the world has taken a breather and overnight China was closed to celebrate May day, unable to celebrate the “beat” of the official Chinese Manufacturing PMI which printed unchanged from last month, at 50.1, goalseeked to beat the consensus expectation […]

Today's Stock Market Rally Only Makes Things Worse :: The Market …

Today’s Stock Market Rally Only Makes Things WorseStock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015Apr 06, 2015 – 05:18 PM GMTBy: Anthony_CherniawskiThe Primary Dealers are using this morning’s action as another selling opportunity. A lot of retail traders had layered in buy orders all the way down to 2050.00 which may have been filled on Friday. This is a ready market for the […]

Stocks, Bonds and Economic Forecasts!

Dear Reader,US tech and biotech stocks are in a bubble. I expect a 30% sell off in these two segments of the US stock market within 2015. The main US stock indices to sell off 20% from current levels.EUR/USD to target 0.90 in 2015. Gold to fall to 1050 USD in 2015.European stocks to also sell off 20% from current […]

Spot The Odd One Out

We hate to spoil the surprise, but the answer, as clearly shown by the first blue bar on the chart below, is Energy, and specifically the ridiculous valuation that energy companies are currently trading at. Why? Because as the following Factset chart shows, the forward P/E of the energy sector is currently 27x – an all time high – and […]

Stocks, Bonds and New FX Targets!

Dear Reader,I still expect US stock markets to fall 20% in 2015 from the current levels measured by the main indices. US tech stocks and biotech stocks are in a bubble and should fall more than 30% from the current levels. Eurozone stocks should fall 20% from the current levels.US treasuries should sell off in 2015. The 10 year yield […]

Stocks Inch Higher As Draghi Dreams Trump Dismal Data

China growth slashed, more epically dismal US data, lack of clarity from Draghi, slumping oil prices, dropping yields, surging USD… now if that isn’t a recipe for buying US equities at record highs, we don’t know what is…Stocks close unchanged from ECB…And on the day only Trannies closed red (even as oil tumbled) thanks to an aftenoon push higher…On the […]

Dow’s Worst Day Since January Despite Crude Buying Panic

Despite rate-cut-fest, and crude buying panic, stocks stumbled for the 2nd day in a row…Stocks held steady through the Asia session despite a plethora of rate cuts (and shitty Japanese data) then legged lower on weak EU PMIs only to stumble hard on more misses and weakness in US data… that was followed by the now ubiquitous v-shaped recopvery that […]

Stocks and Bonds!

Dear Reader,Gold broke briefly 1200 this week. Gold is about to target 1050 in 2015. EUR/USD should target 1.05 in 2015.US stocks should fall 20% measured by the main indices from the current levels. US Tech stocks, especially nonpublic venture capital backed, are in a bubble, along with biotech. Both should decline more than 30%.The disruption that the forecasted fall […]

Stock Markets, Oil, EUR/USD and Gold!

Dear Reader,US stock markets end January 2015 in minus. The correction should exceed 20%, tech and biotech stocks will fall more. EU stocks should finish 2015 in minus as well. Gold should fall with a target of 1050 USD. EUR/USD should touch 1.05 in 2015.Shale oil and gas plays in the US seem a good value play at these levels, […]