Weekly Technical Analysis – AG,GS,CS | Capitalsynthesis
Of all the weekly reports that come through its the trio of the Citi, UBS and AG reports that I am drawn to.
I like the CS macro pulse and the GS weekly tech also the Barcap tech. There are many runners up in terms of analysis but top trio are standouts in my view.
Later today the Swiss team’s regular but here first a few reports inc AG’s and GS’s.
“Chart Madness”, yes. Note the AG chart of GS stock price, alongside the word’s “Keep trimming those winners, stay defensive, and “don’t get caught watching the paint dry.”
I agree with this theme. Recall that this group have only recently shifted toward a more bearish stance as of 3 weeks ago.Note also the energy sector’s breakout alongside the price support in oil and the relative recent strength in the commodities and theoretical price breakout of their charts alongside the euro weakness and deflation. In spite of the usual Monday surge in price (alongside the usual Friday weakness, as no participants wants to hold over the weekend nowadays) price is struggling to get over prior levels. The equity markets continue to display weakness though they have one great seasonal month ahead ie April.
Here AG
And here GS
And here Yardeni with a broader look at the CFTC positions:
And here DB with their CTFC comments and charts:
And here on the macro news flow over night from CS:
And here a useful report from Barcap on the seasonality issues:
and here Citi wealth with their mm weekly.
Note the perpetual optimism that European growth will finally deliver and save the day, much like the US corporate capex boom that has been forecast for the last 5 yrs but never comes.
Yes, I feel the optimism. I would like to position for this optimistic scenario but look at the macro micro data please Citi.
European PMIs are declining from Germany to Spain. European credit declines. European inflation is declining. Unemployment has not changed. If European growth is about to deliver consider from where it is to come. Given manufacturing is contracting from prior levels, credit is tightening and inflation is falling? The trio is not a trio for growth. Em issues continue. US domestic is weakening if the Russel and broader NYSE are any indicator. US housing remains very muted and consumer confidence is falling even as consumption has increased due to savings falling again.
America is often termed the land where “more” is always better. As a European i say “more” can be less and sometimes more can lead to complete self destruction. Learning that more can be less is one of life’s great lessons but it goes against the cultural history of America.
In terms of asset markets and liquidity, top down, there will inevitably come a day when ‘more’ will not lead to higher equity prices and house prices. Janet Yellen at the Fed according to her actions and statements disagrees. I believe we are approaching this defining moment quickly now as yields compress to zero across the curve. More will be eventually result in less and eventually self destruction. And when this occurs the fallout from asset prices will be immense and likely be uncontrollable, for a while.
The following is too long for a bumper sticker but more relevant to society today than any bumper sticker I’ve seen:
“There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved“. ( Ludwig von Mises)
The Swiss team later.
All the best
Rich
P.S. One other issue. In this world of 24/7 connection to the information highway we all have to find ways to switch off or else we will burn out and not perform. This is especially the case for finance professionals.
I recently found some time to read a book by:Chade-Meng Tan, Google employee #107. No irony intended but its a quick and easy read which you can squeeze in to your busy schedule. There is even an app on the subject though i do not recommend the app for obvious reasons. Take care out there guys.
Read more: Can meditation impact entrepreneurship and the world? Google’s happiness guru thinks so
Chade-Meng Tan, Google employee #107Read more: Can meditation impact entrepreneurship and the world? Google’s happiness guru thinks so
Chade-Meng Tan, Google employee #107Read more: Can meditation impact entrepreneurship and the world? Google’s happiness guru thinks so
http://www.techinasia.com/can-meditation-impact-entrepreneurship-and-the-world-googles-happiness-g
Chade Meng Tan, Google Employee 107. No irony intended but its a quick and useful real. I see there is a app on the subject as well but i don’t recommend trying to use the app to relax for obvious reasons!
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Weekly Technical Analysis – AG,GS,CS | Capitalsynthesis
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