Nuveen Asset Management’s Bob Doll expects 2014 economic growth will be “broader and stronger” but remain moderate for the U.S. and the rest of the world.
But Doll, the former top strategist at BlackRock, expects stocks to fall 10% before ending the year in the green.
In a new note to clients, Doll writes that “macroeconomic risks are diminishing as economies improve, which may help reduce fear and strengthen confidence.”
He sees the U.S. economy expanding by 3% this year.
“U.S. fiscal drag is lessening, Europe is emerging from recession, Japan’s deflationary headwinds are diminishing, and China is showing signs of stabilization,” he writes. “Improving sentiment for U.S. corporations, along with strengthening consumption, should lead to an increase in capital spending and a relatively stronger growth trajectory.”
As is his custom, Doll makes 10 predictions for 2014. Here they are:
- The U.S. economy grows 3% as housing starts surpass one million and private employment hits an all-time high
- 10-year Treasury yields move toward 3.5% as the Federal Reserve completes tapering and holds short-term rate near zero
- U.S. equities record another good year despite enduring a 10% correction
- Cyclical stocks outperform defensive stocks
- Dividends, stock buy-backs, capex, and M&A all increase at a double-digit rate
- The U.S. dollar appreciates as U.S. energy and manufacturing trends continue to improve
- Gold falls for the second year and commodity prices languish
- Municipal bonds, led by high yield, outperform taxable bond counterparts
- Active managers outperform index funds
- Republicans increase their lead in the House but fall short of capturing the Senate