Multi Market Macro Technical Analysis – CapSyn,Barcap,CS,GS,MS …
Sunday night so time to be ready for the week ahead. Last week saw the bulls attempted to reassert themselves on what was, prior week, a bearish price candle across many equity indexes with a reasonable score of intra week volatility. By the close of business on Friday the Nasdaq had scored a decent perfect reversal price candle on the week. And following on the prior week’s reversal bar on the prior week’s threatened breakout. All the technical issues discussed before in regards to many of the US indexes remains and now price is increasingly confirming the raft of technical (and macro) indicators we have seen for some time. The Nasdaq and particularly the Nasdaq100 looks like it is joining the Dow and Nikkie in terms of being unable to breakout to new higher highs. The Biotech index crashed on Friday by nearly 5%.
The S&P500 is the stand alone price leader but even here price couldn’t reverse last week’s bearish bar. The divergence to momentum is significant as has been detailed in prior posts. In terms of how participants are positioned we can see that from a longer term perspective, over a 3yr chart period, market participants hold very little protection. Levels remain at contrarian extremes in spite of the geopolitics and weak technical indicators 5 years into one of the strongest and longest bear markets of this century. For what ever reason participants remain extremely bullish and are not buying put options to protect their longs, as yet.
Many European rolled over quite a while ago. The ftse100 hasn’t been able to break above her May 2013 high since having been a giant sized distribution indexes and its starting to become add some weight to those suggesting we are on the verge of a more severe correction. Last week’s price action saw her breakdown below her 50dma. MACD momentum divergence on the most recent attempt higher was great and the move always seemed in doubt.
The DAX was better but given the US indexes close its fair to assume she would have also scored a hammer confirmation bar of the week before weakness.
Sector wise plenty of bearish evidence with the winner’s circle of convincing price charts getting ever smaller and the strong being significantly over bought. The SOX semi conductor has not been this over bought since end Feb 2011 where upon she saw a steep correction of -35% over the following 6 month period. Market breadth needs to improve quickly if this bull market is to sustain.
Without any more delay lets cut to the latest reports:
Here first up the GS Chart pack:
They are maintaining their sp500 bullishness on the basis of price it seems.
Here a great technical set of multi market charts from AG again this week. Since we have been monitoring their reports over the last 3 weeks they have become increasingly bearish.
And here the CS team becoming more uncertain of the bullish continuation
and here the JP Caz team on euro equities:
And here Barcap with their own equity recommendations:
And here the JP asset management team’s set of trades and recommendation allocations. To me, this set of allocations together expose the holder to a significantly high beta upside and downside to risk on off. No trades off set each other and few trades are uncorrelated. Risk in the extreme in my view.
And here the JP Asia team:
And here the same team on China:
And here Barcap on the commodities sector. Commodities have been performing strongly in 2014 thus far as most equities have gone no where and are threatening a correction. It is coincidence? I think not. Commodities are often end cycle laggards but as we can see the cycle has been all about monetary issues rather than any normal economic cycle we might recognize. Historically oil and bullion are the usual instruments for monetary demand flows. Oil having broken down momentarily is seeing inflows once again even as equities fell on the late Friday session. Historically this inverse is consistent, end cycle.
And here commerz team’s technical charts on the commodities:
And here some macro reports
Here from the BNP team revisiting the inflation deflation debate:
BNP-inflationdeflation-21-3-14
And here bnp on the troubled situation in Japan:
And here JP also on Japan:
And here on Germany’s recent changes on their pension rules bringing forward demand:
And here CommerzBank with their regular weekly macro review and preview:
And here MS with their fixed income weekly review,strat:
And moving to the currency markets. Here the CS team with their weekly FX updateL
Here the JP team with a couple of technical fx strat reports:
And their latest from Friday:
And here
And here
Finally here is the latest Nomura technical chart on the important (although becoming less important due to the weakening of the prior correlation risk to dx) eurusd pair:
Lets hope we get some trends here as confusion and drift is not useful for anyone involved in active trading. In my view direction is about to emerge having flagged weakness in risk for some time. If and when it we get a decent correction it will the policy response that will be hugely interesting and potential throw fire on a commodity resurgence. Lets see. For my own book i’m staying long bullion and oil (for now) with short US equities via put options holding a decent cash allocation to reallocate depending on events. I hold some wealth in stocks though its the lowest % on capital since 2009 and the lowest nominal amount since 2010 or so.
There are no certainties but the probabilities point to this allocation at this time. In my view.
All the best
Rich
(
1
votes, average:
5.00
out of 5)
Loading …
Original post –
Multi Market Macro Technical Analysis – CapSyn,Barcap,CS,GS,MS …
See which stocks are being affected by Social Media
