Stock Market and U.S. Mid-Term Election Years :: The Market Oracle …
Stock Market and U.S. Mid-Term Election Years
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Seasonal TrendsMar 04, 2014 – 02:02 PM GMT
By: Ed_Carlson
Mid-term election years are typically poor performers for most of the year until finding a bottom in the fall and beginning a rally which lasts well into the following pre-election year.
The traditional approach to seasonality during a mid-term election year (chart) shows the final high (prior to the long period of under-performance) in April.
Examining mid-term election years only during secular bear markets (as defined by Lindsay), an inflection point (high) is still expected in April but the final high is expected in February, not April. Either way, a pullback in equities is expected to get started now.
A 165 day cycle low is due near the end of March and matches seasonal expectations for a low this month.
If, during this presumed pullback, the February low near 1,740 can hold, then it would seem the bull market will last until the seasonal high in April. On the other hand, if 1,740 fails to provide support, it seems safe to conclude that the 2009 bull market is finally over.
Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay’s An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.
© 2014 Copyright Ed Carlson – All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.
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Stock Market and U.S. Mid-Term Election Years :: The Market Oracle …
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