AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – August 4, 2014 Forecast » Fx …
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The AUD/USD rebounded on Friday after U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data tempered prospects of an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve coming sooner than later.
On August 1, the U.S. Labor Department released its jobs report. The report showed the economy added 209,000 jobs which was less than the 235,000 jobs that economists had forecast.
Throughout July, U.S. economic data had created hope that the labor market was accelerating, but Friday’s data suggest otherwise. The weak data drove down U.S. Treasury rates which made the dollar a less-desirable investment, helping to underpin the Australian Dollar.
Trading may be slow because today is a bank holiday in Australia. However, other traders will get the opportunity to react to the latest M1 Inflation Gauge, ANZ Job Advertisements and Australian Retail Sales. This report is expected to show an increase of 0.3%. This is an improvement from last month’s 0.5% decline.
Daily AUD/USD
Technically, the main trend is down on the daily chart, however, Friday’s closing price reversal suggests a short-term bottom may have formed. This could lead to a retracement into .9372 to .9395 over the next 2 to 3 days.
The nearest support angle today is at .9274. This angle stopped the break on Friday.
The AUD/USD could run into early resistance today at .9321. This is a longer-term Fibonacci level. This level is followed by a downtrending angle at .9329.
A trade through .9335 will confirm the closing price reversal bottom but the market is not likely to accelerate to the upside unless it overcomes an uptrending angle at .9341. Once this level is cleared, the market may run into another resistance level at .9356 before finally reaching the main objective at .9372 to .9395.
Even through the main trend is down on the daily chart, the closing price reversal bottom suggests the market is ripe for a retracement rally to help alleviate an oversold condition. Since the trend is down, the rally is likely to be labored because of the numerous retracement levels. Once they are cleared, look for an eventual move into .9372 to .9395.
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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – August 4, 2014 Forecast » Fx …
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