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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — As the bull market in stocks and bonds shows no sign of slowing, investors are trying to time the inevitable: when it all comes crashing down.It isn’t just MarketWatch. The financial media these days are filled with a mixed message: Growth is finally here and it’s time to invest — until it all ends like the […]
I recently wrote that, “the single greatest mistake investors make is to extrapolate recent history out into the future.” As an example of how dangerous this natural tendency is, I shared a bit of Warren Buffett’s warning from late 1999 in which he wrote that the amazing returns from the stock market during that period had led to investor expectations rising […]
Dear Reader,I still expect US stock markets to fall 20% in 2015 from the current levels measured by the main indices. US tech stocks and biotech stocks are in a bubble and should fall more than 30% from the current levels. Eurozone stocks should fall 20% from the current levels.US treasuries should sell off in 2015. The 10 year yield […]
Biotech stocks are known for their wild ways. Over the last few years, for instance, we have witnessed dozens of small-cap companies soar — as well as sink — following pivotal clinical or regulatory catalysts.Perhaps one of the most intriguing aspects of this phenomenon is that the biggest moves tend to occur in under-the-radar biotechs. Before skyrocketing by over 300% […]
When the market gets a little sketchy, investors might tend to prefer the “blue chip” companies vs. the smaller companies due to the perceived safety in the bigger names.To isolate those bigger names, the most common method is by searching for companies with the largest market capitalization.Market cap is defined as the total dollar market value of all of a […]
Dear Reader,My forecasts for the foreign exchange markets are almost coming true. USD/YEN is already above 120 and EUR/USD is close to 1.05.I still expect US stock markets to sell off in 2015 nearly 20% from the current levels measured by the main indices. Tech and biotech stocks should fall 30% from the current levels. US nonpublic and some public […]
Mike Bird
Feb. 23, 2015, 8:21 AM
13,818
It’s something that sounds pretty odd to most people who follow financial and international news: Russia’s stock market is the best performing in the world so far this year.It’s up by 28%, dwarfing the European equities rally (the major French, Italian and German indices are all up by more than 10%), and eclipsing the S&P […]
Every month, we review the latest BAML survey of global fund managers. Among the various ways of measuring investor sentiment, this is one of the better ones as the results reflect how managers are allocated in various asset classes. These managers oversee a combined $700b in assets.The data should be viewed mostly from a contrarian perspective; that is, when equities […]
Stocks moved smartly to new highs in the major averages this past week. Sector rotation was particularly noteworthy, with former leaders utilities and consumer staples–defensive and yield plays–falling behind and more growth-oriented sectors–consumer discretionary and raw materials–showing particular strength. This reflects strength in U.S. economic data and an increased pricing of odds that the Fed will begin to normalize interest […]
