Stock Market Strong Start to Jackson Hole WeekStock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014Aug 19, 2014 – 02:38 PM GMTBy: PhilStockWorldThe S&P 500 rallied at the open and drifted higher to its 0.87% intraday high during the lunch hour. It then traded in a narrow range to its 0.85% close. The popular press attributes the gain to reduced tensions in Ukraine. It […]
SummaryWe examine the Shiller CAPE ratio to understand whether the US stock market is overvalued.
Prior articles have suggested the US stock market is overvalued based on the CAPE ratio.
I argue that when you analyze the CAPE ratio relative to the interest rate environment the US stock market is not over valued.
This article is in response to an article recently published […]
Recent posts have focused on improved versions of standard market indicators, including sentiment, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, and ticks. One of my most challenging projects, however, has focused on the creation of measures of buying and selling pressure in the stock market. My goal in creating this measure was to follow an intuition and treat supply and demand as separate, independent […]
One of the psychological curiosities of the stock market is that we tend to see euphoria when shares are their most overvalued and despondency when they are trading at greatest value. It’s for that reason that sentiment gauges can be useful in tracking market cycles. One of my favorite measures is the ratio of put options traded to call options […]
Indexes opened up but could not hold gains; again very different action than we saw in June and July. The S&P 500 fell 0.56% and the NASDAQ 0.46%. We’ve been cautious for about a week now due to a technical breakdown and thus far nothing in the market action tells us to change course. The normal culprit – geopolitics – […]
SummaryWe argue that the talk of a stock market bubble relies on too much focus from the depths of 2009 to today.
It is important to examine long time periods of over ten years.
When examining time periods of ten years or more, we find the US stock market has provided investors poor returns over the last ten years meaning no bubble.
Every […]
Tadas Viskanta, in 2012, made the argument that we are living in a golden age for individual investors because of the availability of data, the increased access to markets, and the ability to trade multiple asset classes and strategies via ETFs. As Tadas observes more recently, costs have come down significantly for individual traders and new ETF products place individual […]
The overall uptrend in the S&P 500 continues despite light trading volume and regular pullbacks from marginally higher highs. While this isn’t a reason to bet against the trend, it’s always worthwhile to have a few stocks written down to trade on the short side in case the market does break lower. Relative strength, or weakness, is a key component when […]
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There has been a great deal of talk about the housing recovery. Sales of existing homes steadily rose between mid-2011 and mid-2013 on the back of a weak U.S. dollar and an increase in the money […]
SummaryThe Federal Reserve took an intriguing step in its latest Monetary Report by singling out small-cap, social media, and biotech stocks as having high valuations.
The Fed’s purpose was likely to display vigilance on valuations while avoiding the risk of taking/talking down the general stock market.
Various stocks, including YELP, SOCL, and IWM, appeared to respond to the jawboning by under-performing the […]
